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February 1, 2004
How They Match Up
COMPILED BY JOE MENZER, WITH AN ASSIST FROM DOM CAPERS
Joe Menzer, who has covered the Carolina Panthers for the Winston-Salem Journal since the team was formed, went back to an old source for some help in analyzing Super Bowl XXXVIII.
He called on Dom Capers, the first coach of the Panthers and now the coach of the Houston Texans. Capers coached against both Super Bowl teams this season - his Texans defeated the Panthers 14-10 and dropped a heart-breaking 23-20 overtime decision to the Patriots.
Last week in Houston, the reporter and the coach put their heads together. This is where they ended up:
OFFENSE
Line
Panthers - This has been an underrated crew all season. But the starting five of left tackle Todd Steussie, left guard Jeno James, center Jeff Mitchell, right guard Kevin Donnalley and right tackle Jordan Gross has been durable and solid throughout. Coach John Fox and line coach Mike Maser deserve credit for leaving James, who had been moved around, at one position - and then having the guts to admit that he was better than free-agent pickup Doug Brzezinski, who was paid big money.
Capers says: "One of the things I like about Carolina's offensive line is that they only run about four running plays ... but they disguise them well and they block them well just about every time."
Menzer says: "I thought there were only three running plays - Stephen Davis left, Stephen Davis right, and Stephen Davis up the middle. Oh, yeah, they block for DeShaun Foster sometimes, too."
Patriots - Critics see weaknesses in the starting five of left tackle Matt Light, left guard Russ Hochstein, center Dan Koppen, right guard Joe Andruzzi and right tackle Tom Ashworth. The Panthers don't think the Patriots can block their front four without help and also have noticed that Andruzzi has tendencies that sometimes tip whether a play is a run or a pass.
Capers says: "I think most offensive lines would have a problem with the Panthers' defensive line. They're talented, they're young - and one of the things they've been able to do is get pressure on the opposing quarterback. So I think that could be the case. I think you're talking about maybe one of the strengths of Carolina, and as I look at the Patriots, I wouldn't say that that's a strength."
Menzer says: "Ditto."
EDGE: Panthers
Running backs
Panthers - Stephen Davis is 100 percent healthy again, so look out. He led the Panthers in rushing during the regular season with a career-high and team-record 1,444 yards but strained a quadriceps toward the end of a 64-yard run in the double-overtime playoff win at St. Louis. One of the keys could be whether DeShaun Foster can hold on to the ball and run with authority as he did in the NFC Championship game at Philadelphia.
Capers says: "The Panthers are committed enough (to the run) that even if you stop them initially, they're going to keep on mashing it in there on you with both of their runners."
Menzer says: "If Davis and Foster combine for 100 yards or more, the Panthers will win. But I wouldn't play Foster in the first 10 minutes of the game, when a costly fumble could turn momentum."
Patriots - Antowain Smith (642 rushing yards, 3.5 ypc in the regular season) and Kevin Faulk (638, 3.6 ypc) aren't Davis and Foster, that's for sure. Smith has been getting virtually all the carries in the postseason - 38 to Faulk's 8 - and has run well.
Capers says: "They can't run the ball as well as Carolina can."
Menzer says: "I couldn't have said it any better."
EDGE: Panthers
Quarterbacks
Panthers - Jake Delhomme has been better than most expected, especially in the clutch. But the games keep getting bigger, and Delhomme is in uncharted territory again. Can he avoid costly interceptions and fumbles? The Panthers need him to do so only one more time, and the karma Delhomme is receiving from his hometown of Breaux Bridge, La., is all good.
Capers says: "He's been very resourceful. I think he's improved as the season has gone on. He's a much better player now than when we played them (Nov. 2)."
Menzer says: "The pride of Breaux Bridge seems poised to pull off something special."
Patriots - Tom Brady is every bit as resourceful as Delhomme, and he has Super Bowl experience. He is an accurate passer who releases the ball quickly, usually after three-step drops that make it difficult to get to him in the pocket. He can become the youngest quarterback to win two Super Bowls, but if forced to scramble, he's not very mobile.
Capers says: "Brady is one of those quarterbacks who plays with a lot of savvy.... I think New England can make some big plays in the passing game."
Menzer says: "Brady is a winner. But he can be forced into some mistakes if the Panthers can apply pressure with their defensive front."
EDGE: Patriots
Receivers
Panthers - Steve Smith is one of the most explosive and perhaps underrated receivers in the league, and the oft-criticized Muhsin Muhammad has played his best and most consistent football over the past 10 weeks (even though he is still prone to dropping a pass or two). Don't forget Ricky Proehl; he has delivered in big games before. Tight ends Kris Mangum and Jermaine Wiggins are efficient blockers but not great pass catchers.
Capers says: "The key is can Jake get the ball to Steve Smith, because I think Steve Smith is the one guy that can beat 'em. I think Steve Smith will be one of the real keys to this game."
Menzer says: "The only one who has been able to shut down Smith in the playoffs so far is offensive coordinator Dan Henning, but he might just be saving the best for last."
Patriots - Brady likes to spread the wealth - six receivers have 28 catches or more. Wide receiver Deion Branch led the team with 57 catches for 803 yards and three touchdowns in the regular season. In the playoffs, wide receiver David Givens has emerged as Brady's favorite target, and you can't forget Troy Brown - a player Coach Bill Belichick admiringly refers to as "one football-playing dude."
Capers says: "New England will spread you out.... They've got good receivers, and they can throw the ball up the field."
Menzer says: "These guys are solid but don't really scare anybody."
EDGE: Panthers
DEFENSE
Line
Panthers - End Julius Peppers has elevated his game in the playoffs, and the other linemen - starting tackles Kris Jenkins and Brentson Buckner, starting end Mike Rucker and key reserves Shane Burton and Al Wallace - are as healthy and effective as they've been all year. Some, such as defensive tackles-turned-analysts Warren Sapp and Anthony McFarland of Tampa Bay, think that these guys can dominate the game.
Capers says: "They're all very good players. And Rucker was playing tremendous when we played them. And then Peppers, he can make a play to change a game around."
Menzer says: "The challenge is for them to disrupt Brady before he can get rid of the ball - or at least get their hands in the air and bat down some balls in the passing lanes if they can't."
Patriots - The Patriots can line up in a 3-4 base alignment or a 4-3, depending on the situation. If they can keep the Panthers from picking up yards on first- and second-down running plays to force them into third and long, it could be a long day for the Panthers. It they can't, the advantage flips. Nose tackle Ted Washington is a load in the middle, and end Richard Seymour can play inside in the 4-3 or outside in the 3-4.
Capers says: "Ted Washington is a guy who uses up space inside as a two-gap guy; he's the guy who makes that 3-4 effective. And then they've got (defensive end) Ty Warren that they just drafted who's a good, young player and Seymour who is one of the best young defensive linemen in the game."
Menzer says: "These guys are formidable, and running against them will not be easy."
EDGE: Panthers
Linebackers
Panthers - Now that Dan Morgan has stayed healthy for more than a couple of games, even a casual observer can tell what a difference he makes. Will Witherspoon and Greg Favors have been adequate at the outside spots. And although this group has missed Mark Fields, who has Hodgkin's disease and has missed the season, it has played well without him for the most part.
Capers says: "(Morgan) makes a difference, no question. He's a good player. They're strong right up the middle."
Menzer says: "It's no longer any secret that Morgan in the middle makes this defense one of the best in the league."
Patriots - You've got to love a football player named Tedy Bruschi. He just sounds like a hard-hitting linebacker, and he is. He leads all linebackers with 137 tackles. Roman Phifer, who grew up and played high-school football in Charlotte, finished third on the team in tackles with 133 in his 13th NFL season. But the guy the Panthers need to watch is outside linebacker Willie McGinest, who will be coming on some blitzes. He had 5.5 sacks in the regular season and has added four in the postseason.
Capers says: "McGinest has been a big playmaker for them in the playoffs."
Menzer says: "It's hard not to root for a football player named Tedy Bruschi. But I'm sure Panthers fans will find a way."
EDGE: Patriots
Backs
Panthers - Leaving Ricky Manning Jr. in the starting lineup at cornerback for Terry Cousin even after Cousin recovered from a calf injury was a smart move by the coaching staff. Manning, a rookie, has four interceptions in the playoffs - including three in the NFC championship game. The rest of the secondary -- cornerback Reggie Howard, strong safety Mike Minter and free safety Deon Grant - is underrated and playing as well as it has all season.
Capers says: "The emergence of Ricky Manning has really helped them, and Mike Minter's leadership in the secondary is a key. He's a good player, the right kind of guy."
Menzer says: "The Panthers will have to watch out for short and medium-range passes under their zone coverages, but that's why they'll probably play more man-to-man, which they have done successfully in recent games."
Patriots - Tyrone Poole, a former Panther, is one of the starting cornerbacks and is playing better than he ever did in Carolina, or anywhere else. The other corner, Ty Law, is one of the best in the business and had three interceptions in the AFC championship game. The safeties, Rodney Harrison and Eugene Wilson, could be asked to offer significant run support.
Capers says: "Ty Law, we know he's a Pro Bowl player. I think he's playing great in the playoffs. (But) Rodney Harrison I think maybe made the biggest difference in that team, not only with his physical play but with his leadership. I think he's a leader.... Their secondary has kind of come together and played well."
Menzer says: "Ty Law is the best defensive back in this game."
EDGE: Patriots
SPECIAL TEAMS
Panthers - Place-kicker John Kasay appears to be back to his old self after struggling a little in the middle of the season. But there are still some kicks that seem to fly off his foot and others that float, Richie Cunningham-style. Punter Todd Sauerbrun, who had another Pro Bowl year, is juiced and wants to end his season by hitting someone.
In a game in which field position could rule, the kickoff returns of Rod Smart and/or Steve Smith, plus Smith's punt returns, take on added importance. If either can break even one long return, it could break open a close game.
Capers says: "I give the edge a little bit to Carolina in the kicking game. Their punter is better, I think their returners are a little better."
Menzer says: " I have to admit that I would take Adam Vinatieri over Kasay at this stage of their careers. Yet Vinatieri has not kicked a field goal over 50 yards all season."
Patriots - Punter Ken Walter is still in the league? That's remarkable. Doesn't anyone realize that his career-high gross average of 42.4 yards a punt came in 1997 when he was a rookie with the Panthers? He has averaged more than 40 yards in only two of six seasons since - and has a career-low average of 37.7 this season. In contrast, the Panthers' Sauerbrun averages 44.6 yards a punt, his fourth straight year with better than a 44-yard average.
Place-kicker Vinatieri often battled severe weather conditions to make 25 of 34 field-goal tries during the regular season and made 5 of 5 in the snow and wind in the AFC Championship game. Troy Brown is a dangerous punt returner, as is Bethel Johnson as a kickoff returner.
Capers says: "See Panthers special teams."
Menzer says: "I remember when Ken Walter used to work at the Burger King in Euclid, Ohio. Now he can afford to buy the Burger King in Euclid, Ohio. This is an amazing country."
EDGE: Panthers
INTANGIBLES
Coaching
Panthers - John Fox has pushed virtually all the right buttons this season, and there's no reason to think that he won't do so again. The Panthers seem loose and confident, as they have throughout the playoffs. Fox said he expects to see some "new wrinkles" from the Patriots and that "they can expect the same from us."
Capers says: "They've obviously got a strong defense, but I tell you what they've done on offense might be more impressive. With Davis running the ball the way he has, then Jake becomes more effective because it doesn't put everything on his shoulders where he feels like he's got to win games by himself. It's a smart, heck-of-a-coaching job. And they're picking up momentum at just the right time."
Menzer says: "Who am I to argue with Capers on this one?"
Patriots - Bill Belichick is no Mike Martz. In fact, he believes in all the same things John Fox believes in - strong defense, a potent running game, solid special teams and an opportunistic passing game. This is going to be power, smash-mouth football at its best - a purist's dream.
Capers says: "This is the kind of game that brings a smile to my face."
Menzer says: "Only one of these head coaches will be smiling at the end. Belichick has had his turn already."
EDGE: Even
Mojo vs. experience
Panthers - What is mojo? Only Austin Powers seems to know for sure, but the Panthers seem to have it. They're peaking at precisely the right time, and the team chemistry is special. They have found rallying points in Mark Fields and Sam Mills, who have been fighting cancer since training camp.
Capers says: "Those first two years (when Capers coached the Panthers), we had 'it.' We probably had what (these Panthers) have right now in terms of team chemistry and getting good leadership.... When you've got 'it,' that makes you very confident."
Menzer says: "I know mojo. It is the same thing as 'it,' and you know what Fox's favorite saying is. That's right. "It is what it is, baby.'"
Patriots - The Patriots won the Super Bowl two years ago, so they know what it takes to come out on top. Their experience might be more of a factor early. The Panthers are used to doing what it takes to win close games, but they've never experienced the hoopla surrounding the start of one of these extravaganzas.
Capers says: "If I was coaching this game, the one thing that would really concern me is their experience. If the Panthers can survive the first 10 minutes without committing a big turnover or anything like that, they'll be all right.
Menzer says: "Experience helps rather than hurts, but it will not be the deciding factor in the outcome."
EDGE: Panthers
THE FINAL WORDS
Capers says: "To me, when the (Patriots) spread 'em out, the key is going to be can Carolina get pressure on Brady with a four-man rush - because if Carolina can get pressure on Brady with a four-man rush, I think Carolina will be successful. What Carolina doesn't want is to end up in a lot of one-on-one situations (in the secondary) because now they've got a chance to make a big play up the field."
Menzer says: "Davis will run for more than 100 yards, Delhomme will hook up with Steve Smith for at least one big play - and the Panthers will hold on to win on a late Kasay field goal, proving that mojo is more powerful than experience."